OK, so I finished reading the report.
Guys... It's pretty, PRETTY bad. I'll give y'all a TL;DR so it doesn't get convoluted, since A LOT of shit happened.
NijiJP:
- They missed the sales forecast by about $5M
- Revenue is down by about 17%
- Profits down by 8.5%. Employee costs rose 40%, but platform costs reduced
- Seems to imply they're investing more in infrastructure, but LESS on talents
- Merch sales are down by about $6M compared to last year
- 50% of their revenue in livestreamming and promotion (collabs) comes from waves between 2018 and 2019
- Newer waves had little to no impact in their revenue growth
- Graduations among them had a 20% spike compared to last year
NijiEN:
- Missed forecast by a whopping 36%(!!!)
- 50%(!!!) in overal decrease from last year
- 40% of this decline came from the last quarter
- Events, which saved Q4, made no difference to Q1
- AX cancellation, venue rental, and refunds were a BIG hit in their financials
- Revenue at an all time low. Luxiem and Noctix barely made a difference at all
- Seems to indicate even Sisters are starting to jump ship
Company-wide:
- Net assets down about 60%(!!!)
- Buybacks failed, and they can't do them for the next year and half
- Anycolor announced distributed of dividends (65 yen/share)
- Likely an act of desperation to keep their shares afloat and appease their shareholders before the fatidic Q&A at the start of October
TL;DR: NijiJP depends on old livers, but ever since Q4, they're realizing they can do better on their own. NijiEN is DEAD dead. Expect them to pull the plug before the year ends. Anycolor lost a lot of net assets and money they can't recover. They're investing less on livers overall (even in Japan), and their infrastructure became costier to maintain. Dividends shared as they can't do buybacks. Seems like the beginning of the end for them - not just NijiEN.
thanks guys
